Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Tech Conf 2025: Walmart U.S. eComm Strategy, Marketplace Growth, & AI-Driven Fulfillment Transformation

Key Takeaways

TL;DR: WMT U.S. eComm accelerating (Q2: +26% YoY, +48% 2-yr stack) w/ investments in ultra-fast delivery, Marketplace, automation, and GenAI driving material gains in sales mix, profit, and retention. Mgmt signals ongoing margin tailwinds via higher-margin digital svcs (Ads, Data Ventures, memberships) and further productivity as automation scales. Execution in early innings—multi-yr upside to scale, assortment, and bottom-line leverage.

1. eComm Growth & Strategic Positioning

• Momentum: Q2 U.S. eComm rev. +26% YoY; 2-yr stack ~+48%. Mgmt sees acceleration, esp. w/ omni capabilities.
• Omni Transformation:
  • Online pickup/delivery expanded from grocery to full supercenter assortment.
  • 4,700 U.S. stores dynamically linked to supply chain for deeper, faster fulfillment.
  • Fast delivery & Marketplace = "game changer."
• Competitive Edge:
  • Store footprint = "forward deployed fulfillment network"—~94% of U.S. households reached w/ delivery ≤3 hrs (targeting 95% by YE25).
  • Ex: Nintendo Switch 2 launch leveraged forward-deployed inv. for fast delivery, driving new-to-WMT customers.

2. Delivery Speed & Customer Behavior

• Speed Impact:
  • ~33% of scheduled deliveries are "fast" (≤3 hrs).
  • 25% of "fast" orders delivered in ≤30 min.
• Behavioral Insights:
  • Fast delivery = +13% larger baskets vs. scheduled delivery; drives cross-category buying (grocery → GM, fashion, home).
  • LTV: Fast delivery users spend 2x avg. digital customer; 4+ uses = 3x.
  • "We're going to continue to lean into this space."
• Dynamic Promises: Shifted to real-time, minute-level delivery promises (e.g., "23 min"), enhancing UX.

3. Assortment, Marketplace, & 1P Strategy

• Marketplace/1P Integration:
  • Software screens global retail for in-demand items, scaling Marketplace winners into 1P/in-store.
  • Ex: Arctic (coolers) moved from Marketplace → WFS → in-store 1P.
• Grocery as Differentiator:
  • Grocery ("head inv.") drives frequency, cross-sells into "torso & tail" (non-grocery, higher margin).
  • "Grocery is a differentiator for our Marketplace."
• Marketplace Depth:
  • Ex: Tires—Marketplace enables >100k SKUs w/ local install at 2,500+ stores (integrated O2O svc).
• Seller Base: Seller count +~50% YoY; focus on "in-demand assortment" vs. target #.
• Seller Vetting:
  • 3-pronged trust: Seller ingress (AI/multimodal vetting), item ingress, ongoing lifecycle monitoring.
  • Emphasis: "Remove items/sellers not driving trust."

4. Fulfillment & WFS