Micron Technology's Strategic Outlook and Market Trends at JPMorgan Global Technology Conference 2025

Key Takeaways

TL;DR Summary

Micron (MU) highlighted strong DRAM/NAND pricing trends, accelerating HBM3E 12-high production ramp (30% lower power vs. competitors), and robust AI/data center demand, positioning FY2025-26 for multi-bn-dollar HBM and high-end memory rev. growth. Anticipated GP margin expansion in FQ4 (Aug-2025), supported by favorable mix shifts and yield improvements. U.S. tariff exemptions on memory products and $15B Boise fab construction underscore LT supply stability. New segment reporting (high-end compute, core data center, client, auto/embedded) aims to enhance transparency.

Key Topics

1. Pricing & Gross Margin Trends

• DRAM/NAND pricing recovery: Inflection noted in May Q (FQ3), driven by supply discipline and inventory normalization in consumer (smartphone/PC) markets. NAND underutilization charges to decline.
• FQ3 GM guidance: 36.5% (-140bps QoQ) on higher consumer mix. Expect modest GM recovery in FQ4 (Aug Q) as data center mix rebounds.
• Upcoming catalysts: AI-driven HBM/SSD ASPs and Gen9 NAND/1γ DRAM cost-downs.

2. HBM3E Ramp & AI/Data Center Demand

• HBM3E 12-high crossover: Majority shipments by FQ4 (Nov-2025); yields improving faster than 8-high, with maturity expected by FQ3-end.
• Competitive edge: Customers confirm 30% lower power consumption vs. peers. HBM rev. hit $1B in FQ2 (May-2025), targeting multi-bn-dollar annualized run rates exiting 2025.
• 2026 supply commitments: Already in advanced negotiations; first-mover advantage in HBM4 expected.
• Data center SSD: Record 15% market share (2024 exit); new 9950 PCIe Gen5 SSD adoption rising, qualified on NVIDIA’s (NVDA) Grace/Blackwell platforms.

3. U.S. Manufacturing & Tariff Dynamics

• Boise, ID fab: On track for 2027 production. New York/Virginia projects progressing (permitting phase).
• Tariff impact: No current price increases for U.S. shipments (DRAM/NAND exempt). <5% of rev. exposed to cross-border SSD/module tariffs, per mix shifts.

4. Technology Road Map