Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Tech Conf 2025: Seagate CFO on Cloud Demand, HAMR, and Fin. Outlook

Key Takeaways

TL;DR: MA remains bullish on consumer spend, w/ global diversification driving resilient top-line. CapOne debit migration = minimal 2025 impact, more material in 2026. Secular tailwinds (digitization, strong commercial payments, VAS, tokenization, stablecoin settlement) support mgmt’s confidence in rev. & margin trajectory. VAS, new payment flows, and recent M&A (e.g., Recorded Future) add runway; mgmt highlights large TAMs and penetration opp.

1. Macro & Consumer Spend

• Global consumer spend healthy
  • “Consumer spending continues to be healthy … consistent w/ Q2 call.”
  • Aug. trends = July; no decel.
• US unemployment steady at 4.3%
  • Job creation/labor supply down, keeping UE low.
• Diversified geo exposure (US, EU, APAC, LatAm) offsets regional volatility.
• “Net-net, consumer spend healthy, both domestic & x-border.”

2. Rev. Growth Drivers & Near-Term Headwinds

• Growth at high-end of low-DD for Q3, in line w/ LT targets
  • Portfolio wins, pricing, lapping large deals (Citizens, Wells Fargo SMB) cycled.
• CapOne debit migration:
  • Cards off MA’s network = “minimal impact this yr,” more pronounced rev./vol. impact in 2026 as cards expire/replace.
  • More explicit 2026 guide w/ Q4'25 earnings.
• New global portfolio wins expected to partially offset lost vols.

3. Secular Growth Opps

A. Consumer Payments Digitization

• $54T consumer payments TAM; $11T still cash/check
• ~1.5T TXS remain cash/check; digital shift drives GDV & fee growth.